How Do We Solve a Problem Like Corona

Feedback from those who responded to my last blog, “COVID Lockdown; India’s Biggest Economic Blunder”, was on expected lines. All, without exception, felt that lives were far more important than the economy and it was correct for the government to prefer a save lives approach to a save economy approach. I wish to clarify that it is not my opinion that lives be sacrificed to save the economy, both are precious and need to be saved.

There have been many communicable diseases in the past, some with significantly higher rates of fatalities than Covid-19, and our response to them has been muted. For the first time, in the last 75 years, we are responding to an outbreak of a communicable disease with a great sense of foreboding. Genesis of the COVID panic can be traced back to China’s handling of the epidemic breakout in Wuhan and to the several mathematical projections, predicting millions of deaths, that emerged from various corners of the Globe.

China was the first to panic: When China sets its mind on something it goes into mission mode and nothing, least of all “trifling” concepts such as human rights, citizen’s freedoms and individual suffering, can make it dither …and so it was with the Novel Corona virus breakout in Wuhan. The aggression in approach and the extreme restrictions it imposed conveyed an impression that Corona was deadly.

Whatever the holy books may lead you to believe, life is precious and once lost, cannot be resurrected. However, life is not cheap. We are routinely forced to choose between what we want and what we can afford. Sadly, it is true with life too. We may be reluctant to acknowledge it, but each one of is willing to spend that much and no more to keep a life going.

Whatever the stock market rallies over the past 2 weeks may lead you to believe, the economy is in big trouble and needs all the stimulus that is possible. While most Asian countries’ GDPs are expected to grow between 1% to 2.8%, and that includes our neighbours Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal, India’s GDP is projected to contract by 3.2%.

The implication of a contracting economy, without getting into numbers, is a fall in demand resulting in lower tax revenues to the government, lower profits or higher losses to the private sector, job losses to the common man, slow down or stagnation in fresh investments, increase in banking sector NPAs, lower offtake of credit, fall in interest rates, erosion of savings, etc.

How much is a life worth? Consider the following hypothetical situation. A member of the family suffers from a rare form of cancer. Experimental drugs in the West have shown remarkable results with 100% of the cancers treated going into remission. The drugs are still experimental, are not mass manufactured and therefore the entire treatment costs about Rs. 50 crores. A few hospitals in India offer treatment for this form of cancer. The results are less promising as compared to the West. In about 50% of cases they have been able to stem the growth. The Indian treatment is 98% cheaper at just Rs. 1 crore.

What course of treatment would these people choose?

  • A. Family is amongst the 100 richest families in India.
  • B. Family is upper middle class and well to do.
  • C. Family, with home and car loans, has an annual income of Rs. 15 lakhs.

Family A will spend Rs. 50 crores, without blinking an eye. Family C will probably opt for palliative care as even Rs. 1 crore is way above what they can afford. Only family B has a decision on their hands. If, the 5 acre farm, the luxury apartment, the 20,000 sq. ft. commercial space generating an handsome monthly rental and the Rs. 5 crore portfolio comprising of blue-chip stocks are all disposed off, they could raise the Rs. 50 crores required for the treatment. They would still retain their 4 bedrooms house and business. What treatment would family B opt for?

Individuals don’t always get to put life ahead of livelihood. Our decisions are often a battle between the heart and the mind. Whatever be our decision, we are most definitely going to be left carrying emotional baggage for the rest of our lives. A fine balance between life and livelihood is not easily achieved by individuals. An engineer, on the other hand, can set aside emotions and apply the principles of Operations Research to arrive at a quantitative basis for making complex decisions. Complex mathematics involving data are not for all so, we’ll keep it simple and fallback upon good old common sense to answer the question, how do we solve a problem like Corona?

Define our goal: Our goal is to minimise the loss of lives. No known cure or vaccines are available as on date and the government deployed the only weapon it believed it had in its arsenal, lockdowns. Since 25th March we went through 4 phases of lockdowns, with the first two being severe and total and the latter two offering some relaxations.

The lockdowns kept us indoors and business shut. Normal way of life was denied to all of us. Plans, some made months ago, had to be cancelled. People had to even delay elective surgeries and treatment of chronic ailments. To understand the actual impact of a lockdown on saving lives, we have to consider not only loss of lives directly attributable to Corona but, also increase in fatalities due to restrictions on movement due to the lockdown.   

Diagnostic Labs are shut: Diagnostic labs across the country remained shut. About 3,200 cancers are diagnosed daily. This means in 70 days we would have failed to diagnose around 2,25,000 new cancer cases. As we all know, cancer is curable if diagnosed and treated early. The lockdown has possibly endangered thousands of cancer patients. Not only cancers but, several other ailments too remain undetected as a result of the lockdown.

Hospitals shut too: Hospitals too witnessed near zero footfalls in the past 70 days. Doctors did not show at hospitals. Some doctors consulted over the phone or video calls. Patients too delayed visits to the hospital for fear of contracting the virus. In short, medical care was either not available or refused, by the patients themselves, during the 70 days of lockdown.

Lack of timely medical care and ambulance services to swiftly shift patients to hospitals will result increase in other causes of death. Currently, data on how many daily non COVID deaths took place during the 70 days lockdown is unavailable for India.  New York too was subjected a very severe lockdown, similar to the one in India. Data for New York city is available on the CDC website. As per the figures released for New York, there is a massive 31% increase in average number of deaths due to non COVID reasons during the period of the lockdown. We will not be entirely wrong to assume a similar phenomenon of increase in non COVID deaths happened in India too.

Around 25 lakh persons die of heart attack alone in India every year. The 70 days average for heart attack deaths would be 4.85 lakhs. 31% of that is, yes 1.5 lakhs. It can be argued that India has a younger population and better immunity and so on. It can further be argued that since for COVID was not 100%, some the 31% could include COVID related deaths too. Even if we are to take a lower number, say 5%, the incremental deaths due to denied medical facilities is 10 times the number of COVID deaths.

In 2017, figures for later years are not released as yet, 34% of Indians die due lack of medical care (please see chart below) largely because the facilities are either not available or beyond the reach of the poor. A majority of the patients who die without medical care would have suffered a heart attack, brain stroke or pregnancy related problems. According to experts, many people die due to lack of minor surgeries (Bell weather surgeries). A Lancet commission report says the deaths due to lack of access to medical care surpasses the number of deaths due to AIDS, Malaria and Tuberculosis. The lockdown has only succeeded in denying medical care to the middle class with health insurance too.

Across the board loss of jobs is most likely to push more people back into poverty. In the next 6 to 12 months, hunger and debt related deaths will show an increasing trend. Not just the poorest families, the middle class too will be under tremendous stress to meet their home and vehicle loan commitments sans a regular monthly pay-check.

The most fundamental question of all is, did the lockdown reduce COVID related deaths? From 25th March to 31st May we witnessed a steady increase of number of positive cases from 571 to 190,648. In the last 10 days we have added another 96,507 cases. The lockdown may have slowed rate of spread of the virus but failed to arrest it. It has not lowered the COVID peak but delayed by 2 months, right into the middle of the monsoon season.

The annual monsoon brings with it several diseases such as Malaria, Diarrhoea, Dengue, Chikungunya, viral fevers, Cholera and Typhoid. Even in the good old pre-COVID days, hospitals were pushed to capacity between July and October. The monsoon season is possibly the worst time to experience the COVID peak. With 50,000 new infections per day, both COVID and non COVID, we are sure to run out of hospitals beds. We also run the serious risk of cross infections, increasing the fatality of patients.

Lockdown has achieved the exact opposite of it was supposed to. More lives will be lost because of the lockdowns than would have been lost if the virus was allowed to run its natural course. The damage to the economy will take 2 to 3 years to repair. The one positive outcome of the lockdowns is that people have become aware, at huge personal cost to themselves and the nation, of the precautions they must take to reduce their risk of exposure.

A word on the title. You would have noticed that the title is a take on the popular song How Do You Solve a Problem like Maria from the film, The Sound of Music. There is a reason I chose this title. In the film, there is no problem with Maria, she did very well at the Von Trapp household. The problem was with the expectations the Church had of her. So, it is I feel with Corona and COVID. By locking ourselves at home and expecting the virus to go away, which it naturally refused to do, we have made a huge monster out of it. Treat it as a communicable disease with a low fatality rate, nothing more, nothing less. Test extensively, protect the most vulnerable, quarantine the infected, make available affordable ICU and ventilator support for those who need it and allow the healthy to get on with their lives.

1,348 thoughts on “How Do We Solve a Problem Like Corona

  1. Loved the article.. very thought provoking.. a little too detailed for me.. the medical portion a tad too long.. lost interest by heart attack section.. look forward to the next one

  2. The more lighter things I loved about this blog was the subtle humour in “whatever the holy books may lead you to believe” and the reference to “The Sound of Music”, one of my all-time favourites. Coming to the more substantial parts of the post, it was great to read about the impact of the lockdown on other ailments, makes you think from a different pov, not to mention the migrant labourer deaths which I’m sure exceed the number that has been reported and recorded. Coming to the post-lockdown scenario, though there is a definite increase in cases, like you’ve mentioned, and Telangana is still suffering from a dearth of PPE kits and testing kits, I believe without a lockdown, the rate of increase would have exponentially increased, and in light of the existing scarce resources, I can only imagine an increase of that magnitude would have led to more deaths. Not to mention the impact of such a rampant spread on the comorbidities patients and those suffering from all the ailments as the number seems to be high like you have already mentioned. I feel taking the sensibilities of the entire Indian population is extremely important because all that we needed was a slight lax in the rules to go back to life as it were. Do we really follow restrictions and are lax measures sufficient? I recently saw a video of people trying to board a running bus, albeit wearing masks, like it was a normal pre-covid day and almost trampling each other in the process. Like you’ve mentioned, I think at the very least any amount of awareness the lockdown brought about was very important. Considering the sensibilities, I highly doubt anything less than a lockdown would have made people understand the gravity of the situation, considering there are so many who still don’t understand the importance of social distancing even after. I do however believe that the execution of the same could have been done a lot better. In light of this, and everything that’s happening post-lockdown, and the fact like COVID needs more caution than any other communicable disease, I just hope, with the movement amongst people increasing more and more everyday, that we will achieve herd immunity. Lastly, great blog post Mama!! Extremely informative and compared to your last blog post, I feel you made a stronger argument in this one. Loved reading it. Keep writing and keep sharing!

  3. Great read uncle! Not many articles talk about the deaths from other causes in light of COVID. Thanks for sharing, very informative!

    1. The most important is lockdown was not intended to reduce the deaths of COVID patients as much as reducing the vulnerability of being a COVID patient.
      As my contention is,intuitive steps had to be taken to prevent the virus from being contagious,from the moment it was known to transmit,due to the absence of any logical and deterministic statistics.The world went helter skelter because nobody knew its behaviour.The only logical option was to lockdown which many countries did and some are even extending.Our only observation was Wuhan was totally locked down for a month when the chinese knew it was becoming unwieldy,they had to resort to it,good or bad and that was the only logic we had.We hoped that it would peak and climb down quickly but in our case it didnt but with other countries,it did.No clue of its behaviour.
      Lockdown helped us in acquiring time to import or manufacture masks,testing kits,ventilators etc of which we are even now short,as some other person referred to the situation in Telangana,and also in creating huge no of beds which,thankfully,took the increasing load to a large extent.
      Though clinics were shut,hospitals were opened,even the cancer centre in Adyar.I had the opportunity of visiting hospital,once for me and the other for me.In fact,some clinics were also open with social distancing formalities.My friends underwent dialysis regularly without interruption during lockdown.
      The increase in COVID patients has been reducing the beds for other patients which is likely to happen if the increase of beds is not proportionate.This might have increased the deaths of patients due to other ailments.But that has to be expected because of so many reasons.
      To attribute the increase in infections to lockdiwn is bizarre,at the least.We had to take the basic defensive steps which have been quite successful in ither countries and only then evaluate its efficacy.Now that it is increasing,we have to look at other methods.
      Therefore,to blame lockdown squarely fir the rise in infections,possible increased deaths due to other ailments,general discomforts is unreasonable.In fact,all the essential services were working like pharma industries,banks,medical shops,grocery stores,vegetable shops etc and nobody felt frustrated except for confinement.

  4. Pretty soon, as the country begins to figure out how we “open back up” and move forward, very powerful forces will try to convince us all to get back to normal. (That never happened. What are you talking about?) Crores of rupees will be spent on advertising, messaging, and television and media content to make you feel comfortable again. It will come in the traditional forms — a billboard here, a hundred commercials there — and in new-media forms: a 2020–2021 generation of memes to remind you that what you want again is normalcy. In truth, you want the feeling of normalcy, and we all want it. We want desperately to feel good again, to get back to the routines of life, to not lie in bed at night wondering how we’re going to afford our rent and bills, to not wake to an endless scroll of human tragedy on our phones, to have a cup of a perfect cup of tea and simply leave the house for work. The need for comfort will be real, and it will be strong. And every brand in India will come to your rescue, dear consumer, to help take away that darkness and get life back to the way it was before the crisis. I urge you to be well aware of what is coming. Gaslighting is what we need to be.prepared for let us not belive it was us who were a part of the problem .

  5. 👍
    Very Nice articulated blog with lots of research , time and efforts. Agree with your suggestions in the last paragraph . Purpose of the lock down was to slow down the spread and it is wrong to state that authorities believed that Covid will get arrested and ultimately disappear . Read your first blog on corona too and frankly I did not appreciate as I believed criticism was full of sarcasm and devoid of any constructive suggestions . Could not appreciate relating to the film analogy in 2 nd blog as I have not seen the film . Now it is the responsibility and duty of every citizen to follow protocols to prevent spread . It is also the fear that has taught people to take precautions not only the lockdown . I think you should have incorporated some where about corona’s extreme contagion unlike other communicable diseases though not as lethal as some . Probably this is the reason ,lock down has been clamped in all most all countries . Also did not like mocking PM with selection of words like ‘banal’ when lock down 2 was extended.

  6. Good attempt to bring into focus of a holistic view of the situation vis-a-vis Covid. The steps to solve which are suggested in the blog are summarized in the last part; below are my comments on those –
    1) “Treat it as a communicable disease with a low fatality rate, nothing more, nothing less.”
    My comment – fatality rate data is initially not available and later data validity seems rather questionable in many places.
    2) “Test extensively, protect the most vulnerable, quarantine the infected, make available affordable ICU and ventilator support for those who need it”
    My comment – Now that testing facilities have improved, people could implement these.
    3) “allow the healthy to get on with their lives.”
    My comment – The healthy would still need to observe the preventive care in the interest of themselves and of the community.
    General comments – It is interesting that some governments are criticised for imposing lockdown, while others are criticised not imposing lockdown in a “timely fashion”. Only few countries seem to have escaped the criticism – perhaps because there both the government and the people worked in unison.

  7. We have to live with corona 19 and continue development.
    We now should concentrate and making various products particularly medical devices.
    The common man is not taking care to observe the precautions to avoid the virus
    Lockdown will help only to certain extent and too many lockdowns will deteriorating the mental condition of a person

  8. My specific comments. Steps need to be fleshed out as this was supposed to be the key focus of the article and was not elaborated upon as anticipated.

    1. “There have been many communicable diseases in the past, some with significantly higher rates of fatalities than Covid-19, and our response to them has been muted.”

    My Response:
    Comparing COVID to other diseases is not an equitable comparison as this disease has already proven to be different from diseases of the past.

    It is important to note even with similarities, COVID is not mutating the same way as the flu, the Spanish flu or any other past diseases. So our response, cannot be same as other diseases. We have taken a learning from the Spanish flue where quarantined living helped reduce its impact seeing it spread in a similar fashion. What future steps need to be is a learning process.
    References: https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/second-wave-of-coronavirus-could-be-far-deadlier.html

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/

    Many countries are in this mess because countries did not respond to COVID swiftly and assumed this was simply like the flu. Under-estimating the virus was a big mistake. That is the key learning for everyone.

    2. “Treat it as a communicable disease with a low fatality rate, nothing more, nothing less. Test extensively, protect the most vulnerable, quarantine the infected, make available affordable ICU and ventilator support for those who need it and allow the healthy to get on with their lives.”

    My Response: Using the phrase ‘nothing more, nothing less’ downplays the seriousness of the virus. While it has a low fatality rate, it spreads like wildfire indicates that we need to be handled with care. We are still unaware of the potency of the latent carriers/ far reaching impacts of the virus/ how future strains come into play. Reference: https://mothership.sg/2020/05/covid-19-no-symptoms-study/

    My biggest concern is that even in countries that have re-opened with a new normalcy, people are still taking this lightly and not adhering to distancing, masks, sanitizers. Thinking the virus is now past its deadly stage is a sign of us yet again underestimating its potential mutations. I am not advocating for a permanent lockdown. That is not feasible or logical. We need to think about steps we can take to better handle this as we open up.

    We need to build a culture of improved sanitary conditions, general hygiene practices for instance. I would rather we be better prepared for either a second wave/ mutations of this disease/ future ones than assume we will not face other diseases.

    There is no “get on with our lives”. To expect we will live in the same way as the pre-COVID is premature. We will live but in a new normality potentially where hand sanitizers, some level of distancing and masks will become part of our norm.

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