COVID Lockdown; India’s Biggest Economic Blunder

On 22nd March, our prime minister Shri Narendra Modi announced the first lockdown of 21 days. The announcement came at the end of a symbolic day curfew, craftily branded as Janata Curfew and brilliantly wrapped with much clapping and clanging of metal to make it an inclusive and participative event. With the PMs popularity on a high, the clapping naturally morphed into an impromptu street party complete with dancing, dholaks, et al.

The world sees India as a spiritual country and so it came as no surprise when the second lockdown was welcomed with diyas and mashals. Hold on for a moment will you, India is also seen as the IT power house so mobile phone flash lights were permitted too. Millions shut off their electricity powered lights and lit traditional lamps and flashed mobile flashlights at 9 pm for 9 minutes. Lockdown 2.0, that is what the press called it, officially started on 15th April.

The third and fourth lockdowns, routinely named lockdown 3.0 and 4.0, were banal press releases lacking the spirit, hope and jubilation of the first two. It is not entirely clear why the PM did not personally make these announcements but, speculation is rife that he was socially distancing himself from his people.

By the end of Lockdown 4.0 the tally of positive cases stood at 190,000 and growing. New cases were growing by 5% every day and the nation was convinced that lockdown 5.0 was merely a formality waiting to be announced. The cricket crazy nation took a fresh guard and prepared for a long innings behind the line. That is when, a Chinaman that stumped everyone, Unlock 1.0, came floating across the pitch. The spin and turn on that one caught everyone by surprise.

A subliminal message of the highest standard, Unlock 1.0 conveys the following; Lockdowns are done with, the battle against COVID is done with, goal post has changed from victory over COVID to learn to coexist with COVID and normalcy is coming but in phases. The PM did not utter any of these, his legion of followers did.

As we start the long limp back to normalcy, it is time to look back and evaluate the gains and losses of the past 9 weeks.

Hospitals and doctors are better equipped and prepared to face the deluge of COVID patients. The lockdown succeeded increased the case doubling time from 7 days to 13 days. This ensured that fewer cases were admitted and treated by the doctors. Availability of quarantine beds, test kits and PPEs has increased manifold. Supply of ICU beds and ventilators needed to treat the more sensitive and immunity impaired patients has sadly remained unchanged.

Economy in 2019-20 was already in severe slowdown as the first quarter GP figures, with only six lockdown days show. The GDP for the last quarter of FY 2020, at 3.1%, was well below the finance minister’s assertions in parliament in the first week of February. The annual GDP for the year is also at a 11 year low of 4.2%. The government insists the lockdown impacted the collection of data, not the economy, and the figures would certainly be revised upwards shortly.

India’s economy is in a severe “lockdown” and we are not sure how far deep the bottom is. About 55% of the GDP is contributed by discretionary spending by the people. Consumption in the first two months of the current fiscal is down. Merchandise exports are reported to be down by as much as 60%. Despite RBI cutting repo and reverse repo rates and flooding the banks with liquidity, bank lending has fallen.

Unemployment is at an alarming level and rising. The nationwide shutting down of all commercial and manufacturing activity sent unemployment soaring at the cities. The exodus of jobless workers from urban India to their homes in rural UP, Bihar & Odisha has caused a spike in unemployment numbers in these states as well. With limited infrastructure, low tax revenues and no jobs back home these states are having to address a problem that they neither know how to nor have to resources to tackle.

The growth rate of COVID positive cases shows no sign of easing. Testing in the first 5 weeks was as low as 1,500 cases per day and gradually scaled up to about 100,000 cases per day. Even this number of 100,000 is too small given the 137 crores population of the country. Despite the low testing rates, the numbers continue to grow. Unlock 1.0 is likely to accelerate the growth.

“Very far away from the peak” said Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) scientist Dr Nivedita Gupta on 2nd June. We are at 2,00,000 plus cases and nowhere close to the peak. The jury is still out on whether there will be one peak or many peaks. Joint Secretary Health, Lav Agarwal, confirmed that states have been asked to requisition all possible facilities that can be turned into temporary quarantine facilities. Without having to read between the lines, it is clear that both ICMR and the government are on the same page; both recognise that we are nowhere close to the peak as yet.

Why has the lockdown been lifted when we are still far away from the peak?

Is Unlock 1.0 really a confession that our strategy to contain the virus from spreading has failed and now we have thrown up our hands?

Is Unlock 1.0 a signal that we have changed our strategy from containment to herd immunity?

Is the economic cost so severe that the nation cannot afford the luxury of a lockdown anymore? Was the economic cost not considered when lockdowns were enforced?

Is this just a temporary unlock to enable the ruling party do what it does best, topple opposition governments? Has the Covid Lockdown yielded to down Maharashtra government? If so, are we likely to see Lockdown 5.0 make a triumphant comeback once Thackeray is unseated? This then brings me to the most important question of all, Is the COVID lockdown independent India’s biggest economic blunder by far?

1,956 thoughts on “COVID Lockdown; India’s Biggest Economic Blunder

  1. Good one Annayya!! Not that I am a fan of Modi but anything he did in the past 2 months would have been a disaster anyway by virtue of the timing and unknowns! People would have blamed him for the unprecedented Covid cases and deaths instead..Classic catch 22 situation. There was no example to follow or no way of knowing what is right.

    But the Govt could have handle some issues atleast a whole lot better. The migrant issue was just left to be dealt with by the states instead of the central leadership taking ownership and helping the states out with the issue. For someone who pulled off a surgical strike with that kind of planning and stealth, I expected them to deal with the migrant issue a whole lot better.

    Did the lockdown cause India’s biggest economic disaster?Undoubtedly it did! Was it a blunder? I don’t think so! We just didn’t have options. And a friend’s close friend contracted Covid twice since he is a doctor working in the frontline. The first time was mild and the second was more serious. This is verified information and so herd immunity may actually not be a thing to look fwd to at all! Covid seems to be like the flu. You can catch it any number of times. So🤷🏻‍♀️ the jury is going to be out for decades

  2. Your concluding paragraph of unanswered questions reflects the state that the world has been thrown into by the virus. The debate of lives vs livelihood was never a this OR that, but is this AND that. Leaders world over struggled to find the right balance. There was and never Will be a perfect solution for this conundrum. The lockdown was a perfect case of damned if you do and damned if you don’t.
    This debate will go on for decades to come with no real answers. The only way forward is to LIVE with it in a “novel “way with the novel coronavirus!!!

    1. Good Analysis Challa, my two cents i feel complete lockdown was mandated to give Govt enough time to create quarantine centers without overwhelming our first responders. India is a very complicated country with some deep rooted issues varying from from economic to religion to politics. There is no one size fits all solution and everyone in present and past administration recognise this fact. Our infrastructure is no match compared to western world who were equally vulnerable or rather failed.
      I hear enough arguments that every year more people die of flu or other diseases so why so fuss but do they really overwhelm our hospitals ?

      There was never a global lockdown in the past hence I don’t think any economist can predict with statistical models as to how or what our growth rate will be. All of them could be guessing, govt of the day should put money in the pockets of people and handhold for at least few months to instil confidence and I am sure it will go a long way in revival. As much as we are cursed with our huge population we are equally blessed to have the same population for domestic consumption. By saying so I am not justifying India’s population by any means.

      Let’s wait and watch

  3. Economic compulsions will make it impossible for people to sustain physical-distancing measures that might otherwise have been manageable. Therefore, by relegating the welfare of people to an afterthought, and by offering only measly relief measures, the government has contributed to the failure of its own epidemic-control efforts.must not mask the ground reality that the novel coronavirus is still raging in India, unlock 1 may open up the business’s but with diminished spending ability and limited recovery in sight most may not be enthused to spend . Indian middle class had only recently begun spurlge we have forced them to save and this habit is not changing in a hurry .

    1. Covid situation is a peculiar case which could not be predicted by anybody leaving everybody in a guess to the point that even the medical experts were divided in the efficacy of lockdowns,let alone prevention and cure.The point is there was and is no probabilistic statistics to determine how the virus’s behaviour of spreading.Even after lifting lockdown in Wuhan due to absence of cases,they are still testing every family as some cases keep arising.This put everybody in a quandary with no directions to the path of a solution.Under these circumstances,it is immature to evaluate the decision of govt,for,the result is known only after the deed is done.

  4. Political agendas, conspiracies, theories aside, the truth of the matter is the world sat on the sidelines watching as though it’s not in their backyard. Hence lockdowns were necessary knee jerk measures to buy time. Although the percentage of cases may be low, the absolute numbers are high enough to warrant a lockdown. More planning could have gone into implementation of the lockdown. What we have now is a case of hindsight vision. More importantly it has to be seen how wisely they have used this lockdown time….. how much planning has gone into reopening the economy

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    | é} hora de ser feliz. {Eu | Eu} li este post e se pudesse, eu {quero | desejo | desejo} sugerir-lhe {algumas | algumas} coisas interessantes ou {conselhos | sugestões | dicas}.
    {Talvez | Talvez} você {poderia | pode} escrever os próximos artigos
    referentes a este artigo. Eu {quero | desejo | desejo} ler {mais |
    ainda mais} coisas sobre isso! |
    {É | É} {apropriado | perfeito | o melhor} momento
    para fazer {alguns | alguns} planos para {o futuro | longo prazo | o longo prazo} e {é | é} hora de ser feliz.
    {Eu tenho | Eu} {ler | aprender} este {post | enviar | publicar | colocar}
    e se eu {posso | apenas | posso | poderia} eu {quero | desejo | desejo} {sugerir | recomendar | aconselhar} você {alguns
    | alguns} {interessantes | fascinantes | atraentes}
    {coisas | questões} ou {conselhos | sugestões
    | dicas}. {Talvez | Talvez} você {poderia | pode} escrever {próximo | subsequentes} artigos {relacionados a | referindo-se a | referentes} a este artigo.
    Eu {quero | desejo | desejo} {ler | aprender} {mais | ainda mais} {coisas
    | questões} {aproximadamente | sobre} isso! |
    {Estive | Estive} {surfando | navegando} {online | on-line} {mais de | mais
    de} {três | 3} horas {estes dias | hoje | hoje | recentemente | até o
    final}, { ainda | mas} Eu {nunca | de forma alguma} {encontrei | descobri} qualquer artigo
    {interessante | fascinante | chamativo} como o seu. {É | É} {adorável | bonita |
    bela} {vale | valor | preço} {suficiente | suficiente} para mim.
    {Na minha opinião | Pessoalmente | Na minha opinião},
    se todos os {webmasters | proprietários de sites | proprietários de sites |
    proprietários da web} e blogueiros fizessem {na medida
    certa | bom | excelente} {conteúdo | material de conteúdo} como {você
    fez | provavelmente fez}, a {internet | net | web} {será | será
    | pode ser | provavelmente será | pode ser | provavelmente será} {muito mais | muito mais} {útil | útil} do que nunca.

    |
    Ahaa, é {bom | agradável | bom | exigente} {discussão | conversa
    | diálogo} {sobre | concernente | sobre | sobre o tema} deste {artigo
    | postagem | texto | parágrafo} {aqui | neste lugar} neste {blog | weblog
    | página da web | site | site da web}, eu li tudo isso, então
    {agora | neste momento} eu também comentando {aqui | neste
    lugar}. |
    Tenho certeza de que este {artigo | postagem | texto |
    parágrafo} tocou toda a internet {usuários | pessoas
    | espectadores | visitantes}, é realmente {bom | agradável | bom | exigente} {artigo | postagem | artigo | parágrafo} sobre a construção de um novo {blog | weblog | página da
    web | site | site da web}. |
    Uau, este {artigo | postagem | texto | parágrafo} é {bom
    | agradável | bom | exigente}, minha {irmã | irmã mais nova} está analisando {tais | esses | esses tipos de} coisas, {então | assim | portanto} vou {dizer | informar | avisar | transmitir} a ela.
    |
    {Salvo como favorito | marcado como favorito !!}, {Gosto muito | Gosto | Adoro} {seu blog
    | seu site | seu site | seu site}! |
    Forma legal! Alguns pontos {muito | extremamente} válidos!
    Agradeço por você {escrever isto | escrever este} {artigo | postagem | artigo} {e o | e também
    o | mais o} resto do {site é | o site é} {também muito | extremamente | muito | também realmente | realmente} bom.

    |
    Olá, {Eu acredito | Eu acho} {este é um excelente | este
    é um ótimo} {blog | site | site | site}. Eu tropecei
    nele;) {Eu vou | Eu vou | Eu vou | Eu posso} {voltar | voltar | revisitar} {mais
    uma vez | mais uma vez} {desde | desde que eu tenho} {favorito | livro marcado | marcado com livro | salvo
    como favorito}. Dinheiro e liberdade {é o melhor | é a melhor} maneira de mudar, que você seja rico e continue a {ajudar | orientar} {outras pessoas | outros}.
    |
    Uau! Estou realmente {amando | curtindo | cavando} o modelo / tema deste {site
    | site | blog}. É simples, mas eficaz. Muitas vezes é {muito difícil |
    muito difícil | desafiador | difícil | difícil | difícil} obter o
    “equilíbrio perfeito” entre {excelente usabilidade | facilidade de uso | usabilidade} e {aparência visual | apelo
    visual | aparência}. Devo dizer {que você | você | você} fez um
    {incrível | incrível | muito bom | excelente | fantástico | excelente
    | ótimo} trabalho com isso. {Além | Além disso |
    Além disso}, o blog carrega {muito | extremamente | super} {rápido | rápido} para mim no
    {Safari | Internet explorer | Chrome | Opera | Firefox}.
    {Soberbo | Excepcional | Excelente | Excelente} Blog!
    |
    Estas são {realmente | realmente | de fato | verdadeiramente | genuinamente} {ótimo | enorme | impressionante | maravilhoso | fantástico} idéias em {a
    respeito | sobre | sobre | sobre o tópico de} blogs.
    Você tocou em alguns {nice | agradáveis | bons | fastidiosos}
    {points | fatores | coisas} aqui. De qualquer maneira, continue escrevendo.

    {Eu amo | Eu realmente gosto | Eu gosto | Eu gosto | Todo mundo adora} o que vocês {são | geralmente |
    tendem a ser} também. {Este tipo de | Este tipo de | Tal | Este tipo de} trabalho inteligente e {exposição | cobertura | relatório}!
    Continuem com os trabalhos {excelente | excelente | muito bom | ótimo | bom | incrível | fantástico
    | excelente | incrível | maravilhoso} que eu {incorporei || adicionei | incluí} vocês ao {| meu | nosso || meu | meu próprio} blogroll.
    |
    {Olá | Olá | Olá | Olá | Olá | Olá}! Alguém em meu grupo {MySpace |
    Facebook} compartilhou este {site | website} conosco, então
    eu vim para {dar uma olhada | dar uma olhada | dar uma olhada | dar uma olhada}.
    Estou definitivamente {curtindo | amando} a informação.
    Estou {book -king | bookmarking} e irei twittar isso para meus seguidores!
    {Terrific | Maravilhoso | Ótimo | Fantástico | Excelente | Excepcional | Excelente | Excelente} blog
    e {maravilhoso | fantástico | brilhante | incrível | ótimo | excelente | fantástico
    | excelente | excelente} {estilo e design | design e estilo
    | design}. |
    {Eu amo | Eu realmente gosto | Eu gosto | Eu gosto | Todo mundo adora} o que vocês {são | geralmente
    | tendem a ser} também. {Este tipo de | Este tipo de | Tal | Este tipo de}
    trabalho inteligente e {exposição | cobertura
    | relatório}! Continuem com os trabalhos {excelente | ótimo | muito bom | ótimo | bom | incrível | fantástico
    | excelente | incrível | maravilhoso} que eu {incorporado
    | adicionei | incluí} vocês ao {| meu | nosso | meu pessoal |
    meu próprio} blogroll.
    {Olá | Olá | Olá | Olá | Olá | Olá}, você se importaria de {declarar | compartilhar} com qual plataforma de blog você está {trabalhando | usando}?

    Estou {procurando | planejando | vou} começar meu próprio blog {em um futuro próximo | em breve}, mas estou tendo um momento {difícil | difícil | difícil}
    de {tomar uma decisão | selecionar | escolher |
    decidir} entre o BlogEngine / WordPress / B2evolution e Drupal.

    A razão de eu perguntar é porque seu {design e estilo | design | layout} parece diferente da maioria dos
    blogs e eu estou procurando por algo {completamente único | único}.
    PS {Minhas desculpas | Desculpas | Desculpe} por {ficar | fora do tópico, mas eu tinha que perguntar!
    |
    {Olá | Olá | Olá | Olá | Olá | Olá}, você se importaria de me
    informar com qual {webhost | empresa de hospedagem | host}
    você está {utilizando | trabalhando com | usando}? Carreguei seu blog em 3 {completamente diferentes
    | diferentes} {navegadores de internet | navegadores da web
    | navegadores} e devo dizer que este blog carrega muito {mais rápido | mais rápido} do que a
    maioria. Você pode {sugerir | recomendar} um bom provedor de {hospedagem
    na Internet | hospedagem na web | hospedagem} a
    um preço {honesto | razoável | justo}? {Muito obrigado | Kudos
    | Saúde | Obrigado | Muito obrigado | Obrigado}, agradeço!
    |
    {Eu amo | Eu realmente gosto | Eu gosto | Todo mundo adora}
    {quando as pessoas | quando as pessoas | quando as pessoas
    | sempre que as pessoas} {vêm juntos | se reúnem} e compartilham {opiniões | pensamentos | pontos de vista | ideias}.
    Ótimo {blog | site | site}, {continue assim | continue o bom trabalho | continue com ele}!
    |
    Obrigado pela {auspiciosa | boa} redação.
    É, de facto, foi uma diversão que representam. Olhe avançado para {far
    | mais} adicionado agradável de você! {A propósito | No entanto}, como {podemos |
    poderíamos} nos comunicar? |
    {Olá | Olá | Olá | Olá | Olá} só queria avisar rapidamente.
    As {text | words} em seu {content | post | article}
    parecem estar saindo da tela no {Ie | Internet explorer | Chrome | Firefox | Safari | Opera}.
    Não tenho certeza se este é um problema de {formatação | formatação} ou algo
    a ver com a compatibilidade do {navegador | navegador da
    Internet | navegador}, mas eu {pensado | figurado} postaria para informá-lo.
    O {estilo e design | design e estilo | layout | design} parece ótimo!
    Espero que você consiga o {problema | problema} {resolvido | resolvido | corrigido} em
    breve. {Kudos | Cheers | Muito obrigado | Obrigado} |
    Este é um tópico {que é | que é | que é} {perto de | perto de} meu coração …
    {Saúde | Muito obrigado | Cumprimentos | Cuidado | Obrigado}!
    {Onde | Exatamente onde} estão seus dados
    de contato? |
    É muito {fácil | simples | sem problemas | direto | sem esforço} para descobrir qualquer {tópico | assunto} na
    {rede | web} em comparação com {livros | livros}, como eu encontrei este {artigo | postagem | parte de escrevendo | parágrafo} neste {site | site | site | página da web}.
    |
    O seu {site | site | blog} tem uma página de contato?
    Estou tendo {um momento difícil | problemas | problemas} para localizá-lo, mas gostaria de {enviar |
    atirar} para você um {e-mail | e-mail}. Eu tenho algumas {ideias criativas
    | recomendações | sugestões | ideias} para o seu
    blog que você pode estar interessado em ouvir. De qualquer forma,
    ótimo {site | site | blog} e estou ansioso para vê-lo
    {desenvolver | melhorar | expandir | crescer} com o tempo.
    |
    {Hola | Olá | Olá | Olá | Saudações}! Eu tenho {seguindo
    | lendo} seu {site | site | site | weblog | blog} há {muito
    tempo | um tempo | algum tempo} agora e finalmente tive a {bravura | coragem} para ir em frente e dar a você um grito de {New Caney | Kingwood |
    Huffman | Porter | Houston | Dallas | Austin | Lubbock
    | Humilde | Atascocita} {Tx | Texas}! Só queria {dizer |
    mencionar | dizer} manter o {fantástico | excelente | ótimo | bom} {trabalho | trabalho}!
    |
    Saudações de {Idaho | Carolina | Ohio | Colorado | Flórida | Los angeles |